Climate Change and Carob: The Tree of the Future?
The Mediterranean basin is among the regions most affected by climate change: hotter summers, more irregular rainfall and prolonged dry periods strain many traditional agricultural products. In this table, carob is often referred to as the "tree of the future" due to its ability to grow with little water, its adaptability to poor soils and its long life.
In this article, we discuss the strengths of carob in the face of climate change, but also its limits and risks, based on scientific sources. We discuss why carob stands out as an alternative crop in Mediterranean agriculture, under what conditions it can meet this expectation, and on which topics there is not enough information yet.
The Change That Awaits Mediterranean Agriculture
The basic character of the Mediterranean climate is warm and rainy winters and hot and dry summers. With climate change, this balance has shifted to a drier and warmer direction, making it difficult to produce water-dependent products. In this case, two basic questions come to the fore for producers: Which crops can be grown economically with less water and which trees are more resistant to extreme weather events?
Carob appears as a strong candidate for both of these questions. In the review by Martins-Loução, Correia and Romano (2024) on carob as a future resource for the Mediterranean, it is emphasized that the species copes well with unpredictable weather conditions and adapts well to climate change, which threatens water availability and soil nutrients.
Strengths of Carob
Drought resistance
Carob's drought tolerance is based on several mechanisms. Martins-Loução et al. (2024) state that the hard and leathery leaves limit water loss, while deep roots and rapid changes in water potential ensure efficient use of water in the soil. The tree can also adjust its leaf area, number of branches, and root branching according to conditions. The report of the General Directorate of Forestry states that the root depth can reach 15–20 meters (OGM, 2020).
The precipitation limits that carob can live in the sources are also noteworthy:
| Source | Precipitation information |
|---|---|
| Martins-Loução et al. (2024) | It can live and produce with approximately 250 mm of precipitation |
| Feedipedia | grows at 250–500 mm annual rainfall; commercial production requires at least 500–550 mm or irrigation |
| Tous and Ferguson (1996) | drought tolerant; average rainfall of 500–550 mm for commercial crop |
| OGM (2020) | Annual water requirement is 500-600 mm; It can survive in rainfall of around 100 mm |
| Erbaş (2024) | Approx. 500 mm for economical harvesting; supplementary irrigation below 400 mm |
This table clearly shows the difference between the "survival" and "economic yield" thresholds of carob. The tree can live in very arid conditions; however, it still needs a certain amount of water for commercial production.
Temperature resistance
Erbaş (2024) states that carob can withstand temperatures up to 40 °C. In the report of the General Directorate of Forestry, it is stated that the tree can withstand a summer temperature of 40 °C and hot winds (OGM, 2020). This suggests that carob is in an advantageous position compared to many fruit species in a warming Mediterranean.
Adaptation to marginal terrain
Carob can grow in calcareous, rocky and poor soils. In the trial conducted in the Balearic Islands on a land with low rainfall and limiting soil conditions, carob varieties were grown without the use of any additional inputs, and the best varieties entered production in the fifth year. Among the reasons for the growing interest in carob, the researchers cite its resistance to pests and diseases and its low water requirement (Barceló et al., 2023).
Carbon sequestration and ecosystem services
Martins-Loução et al. (2024) evaluate the potential of carob to sequester carbon in biomass and soil as an option in the fight against climate change; they also report that payment models for carbon and ecosystem services are being tested in carob orchards. Thus, carob stands out as a species that not only adapts to climate change but can also contribute to mitigating change.
Carob Weaknesses and Risks
While the phrase "tree of the future" is attractive, carob also has its vulnerabilities in the face of climate change.
Frost sensitivity
Carob is not a cold-tolerant tree. Tous and Ferguson (1996) state that frosts of -4 °C and below can kill young trees and damage shoots and flowers in older trees. Although climate change increases average temperatures, extreme events such as sudden cold snaps do not disappear. Therefore, moving carob further north or higher requires careful consideration of the risk of frost.
Sensitivity to precipitation timing
Carob blooms and pollinates in autumn. According to a 30-year Portuguese data cited by Martins-Loução et al. (2024), yield was not found to be related to temperature, but was adversely affected by precipitation throughout the hydrological year, especially in autumn. The same review emphasizes that the distribution of precipitation by months is more important than the total annual precipitation. The fact that precipitation has become more irregular and intense due to climate change may affect flowering and fruit set in carob in this way.
Yield fluctuation
In the Balearic trial, it was reported that yields decreased in most varieties due to adverse weather conditions in 2022, only some varieties were not affected by this decline (Barceló et al., 2023). Martins-Loução et al. (2024) also state that yields vary between years, which discourages garden income. The frequency of extreme weather events can increase this fluctuation.
New pests
Climate change affects not only the tree but also the pests. Castello et al. (2023), who compiled carob pathogens in Italy, state that the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus compactus is a growing threat to carob, with the insect preferring stressed trees and increasing the impact of extreme climate events and global trade. The fact that trees under drought stress are more vulnerable to such pests indicates that even a "drought-tolerant" tree can be indirectly affected by the climate.
A question mark on sex distribution
In the review by Martins-Loução et al. (2024), it is stated that the mechanism of sexual determination in carob has not yet been solved and that there are findings that high temperatures may favor male plants. This issue is still an open research question; however, if confirmed, it would mean that the male-female balance may change in populations grown from seed in warming conditions.
Why is carob retreating?
Although carob stands out as a tree suitable for climate change, it is also a fact that cultivation areas are decreasing. Martins-Loução et al. (2024) state that carob cultivation areas across the Mediterranean have decreased by 65% in the 21st century, although industrial demand remains high. The authors emphasize that limited knowledge of the species' biology and inadequate agricultural practices limit the quantity and quality of fruit reaching industry.
This contradiction shows that for carob to be the "tree of the future", not only its biological advantages are enough, but it also needs research, investment and good agricultural practices.
The Importance of Gene Resources
One of the most valuable tools in adaptation to climate change is genetic diversity in natural populations. In a doctoral thesis examining semi-natural carob gene resources in Morocco, Spain, and Lebanon, it was reported that most of the variation was found within the populations themselves, Lebanese seedlings performed best in the least water conditions, and pod characteristics were associated with seedling performance under drought stress. The researcher emphasizes the need to conserve wild gene resources for the breeding of drought-resistant and productive varieties (El Chami, 2025).
For Turkey, this finding is particularly significant. Extensive populations of wild carob are found along Turkey's Mediterranean and Aegean coasts, with genotypes adapted to different rainfall, temperature, and soil conditions. A study conducted in Antalya showed that fruit and seed characteristics vary markedly based on location and altitude, even within the same province (Balkıç et al., 2024). This diversity is an important resource for the development of varieties that are better adapted to climatic conditions in the future.
Carob as an Alternative Product in Mediterranean Agriculture
When all this information is evaluated together, the place of carob in Mediterranean agriculture can be summarized as follows:
- It can be an economical option in areas with water scarcity and limited irrigation.
- It can evaluate rocky, sloping and poor lands where other products cannot be productive.
- As long as the industrial demand for its product (food, gum, extract) continues, its economic return continues.
- It provides additional environmental benefits, such as carbon sequestration and soil conservation.
- However, due to its sensitivity to frost, sensitivity to rainfall timing and yield fluctuation, it requires proper site selection and good management.
The feasibility report prepared by Erbaş (2024) for the Western Mediterranean and the investor guide of the General Directorate of Forestry (OGM, 2020) show that carob is also seen as an investment option that evaluates marginal lands in Turkey.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is carob really drought tolerant? Yes; it can survive in very low rainfall thanks to its deep roots and leaves that limit water loss. However, for economic yield, it requires about 500 mm of rainfall or complementary irrigation annually.
Can carob grow further north in a warming climate? An average temperature increase can increase this possibility; however, carob is sensitive to frost, and sudden cold waves continue to pose a risk.
Does climate change affect carob yield? Research shows that autumn precipitation and adverse weather events can affect yields.
Is carob the tree of the future? It is a strong candidate with its drought tolerance, adaptation to marginal lands and environmental benefits; however, the realization of this potential depends on research, correct site selection and good agricultural practices.
A Future-Proof Product with Carob Türkiye
Carob is one of the rare trees that can produce a valuable raw material with little water in changing climatic conditions. This potential makes carob a long-term value for both the producer and the industry. At Carob Türkiye, we supply carob fruit, crumbs, flour/powder, seeds and extracts.
For general information about carob What is Carob? You can read our article, Our Products You can review the page. For your wholesale and export requests Contact Now You can contact us on our page.
Domestic resources
General Directorate of Forestry, "Carob Garden Facility Project: Feasibility Report and Investor Guide", Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2020. I'll take it to Konya.
gov. en/ assets/ upload/ files/ Carob- … Erbaş, S., "Carob Agriculture and Industry Feasibility Report", Western Mediterranean Development Agency, Publication No: 153, 2024. DEVELOPMENT LIBRARY.
gov. en/ assets/ upload/ files/ Keciboy... Balkıç, R., Polat, İ., Gübbük, H., "Effects of Different Locations on Fruit and Seed Characteristics in Naturally Growing Wild Carob Genotypes in Antalya", Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, 15(2), 74–80, 2024. doi.
org/ 10. 29048/ makufebed. 1454370 Foreign sources
Martins-Loução, M. A., Correia, P. J., Romano, A., "Carob: A Mediterranean Resource for the Future", Plants, 13(9), 1188, 2024. doi.
org/ 10. 3390/ plants13091188 Barceló, M., Pou, J., Llompart, M., Luna, J. M., Garau, C., "El garrover (Ceratonia siliqua L.): un cultiu alternatiu adaptat a condicions marginals", VIII Jornades de Medi Ambient de les Illes Balears, Societat d'Història Natural de Balears, pp. 522–525, 2023. portalinvestigacio.
UIB. es/ documentos/ 686c0c4126b2021a4349... El Chami, M. A., "Diversity assessment of the semi-natural Lebanese, Spanish and Moroccan carob germplasm and evaluation for resilience to drought", PhD thesis, Universidad de Córdoba, UCOPress, 2025. hdl.
handle. net/ 10396/ 33079 Castello, I., Polizzi, G., Vitale, A., "Major Pathogens Affecting Carob in the Mediterranean Basin: Current Knowledge and Outlook in Italy", Pathogens, 12(11), 1357, 2023. doi.
org/ 10. 3390/ pathogens12111357 Tous, J., Ferguson, L., "Mediterranean Fruits", Progress in New Crops (ed. J. Janick), pp. 416–430, 1996. Growables.
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