Factors Affecting Carob Prices

In addition, the price for the same product; It varies according to the quality of the product, delivery method, packaging, order quantity and payment terms. Therefore, we do not provide specific price figures in this article. Instead, we discuss the factors that determine the direction and level of the price one by one. Knowing these factors provides healthier decision-making for both buyers planning their purchases and manufacturers who want to evaluate their products.

1. Yield and Supply Fluctuations

The main factor that determines carob prices is the amount of product harvested. Carob is a product whose yield can vary greatly from year to year. The series in FAO's FAOSTAT database clearly show this fluctuation:

A supply that can fall by half or even more in a year directly affects prices. Moreover, since carob production is concentrated in a few Mediterranean countries, a bad harvest in a major producing country can have a noticeable impact on the world market.

There is also a long-term trend on the supply side. According to the review published in the Turkish Journal of Botany, world carob production has been declining for decades due to the aging of orchards and the scarcity of new plantings. A shrinking supply base causes short-term yield shocks to be reflected more harshly on prices.

2. Climate and Drought

Carob is a drought-tolerant tree; however, this does not mean that it is not affected by drought. Prolonged lack of rainfall can negatively affect flowering and fruit set, reducing yields. In a news report made in the Algarve region of Portugal in 2022, it was reported that a decrease of up to 40 percent was expected in the harvest due to drought.

According to another report from the Lusa agency from 2022, earlier fruit ripening and higher prices in the Algarve have been associated with an increase in theft complaints. This example shows that climatic conditions can affect not only the quantity, but also the timing of the harvest and, consequently, the market calendar.

3. Kernel Demand and Carob Gum Market

The value of carob fruit largely comes from the seed inside. According to a 2024 review by Algarve University researchers, the seed makes up 10–25 percent of the fruit weight; despite this, the most valuable products of the fruit are obtained from the seed. Carob gamut (E410), produced from the endosperm of the seed, is used in a wide range of areas such as ice cream, dairy products, baby food and pet food.

Therefore, when the demand for locust bean gum increases, so does the demand for the kernel and therefore for the whole fruit. Gum demand is a factor that drives the price of locust bean fruit "from the bottom up". Conversely, when gum producers have high inventories or substitute products such as guar gum become attractive, there can be pressure on kernel prices.

The kernel ratio in the fruit is also important for this reason. Batches with a high kernel ratio may be more valuable for kernel and gum producers. We discuss the carob gum market in detail in a separate article.

4. Demand for Fruit Meat Products

The part of the fruit other than the seed, that is, the fruit flesh, is converted into products such as broken, powder, molasses and extracts. The demand for these products also affects prices. The use of carob as a cocoa substitute has also been the subject of scientific reviews in terms of composition, health and food applications. A report in the Turkish press in 2026 also claimed that carob powder came to the fore as an alternative with the rise in cocoa prices and that high tonnage orders came from abroad; however, no concrete figures were given in the news.

Consumer trends such as healthy eating, gluten-free products, and interest in natural sweeteners can be counted among the factors that support the demand for fruit meat products. This demand is especially reflected in the price of high-quality powdered and broken products.

5. Product Quality

In the same year, even two batches of carob from the same region can be bought and sold at different prices. The main reason for this is quality. The main quality factors that affect the price of carob products are as follows:

The composition of the fruit naturally varies. According to a review by the University of the Algarve, the total sugar content of the fruit flesh in local varieties in the Algarve can vary between approximately 25 percent and 50 percent, depending on the variety. A study conducted in Cyprus also revealed that the nutritional composition of carob and traditional carob products varies significantly depending on the product type and production process. This variability makes it necessary for buyers to set specifications and negotiate prices based on the analysis results.

6. Exchange Rates

Carob is a product traded mainly in euros and US dollars in the international market. Therefore, changes in exchange rates affect prices in local currencies in both exporting and importing countries.

In an exporting country like Turkey, the depreciation of the local currency can make export prices more competitive for foreign buyers; however, it can also increase input costs, energy and packaging expenses. On the buyer's side, a strong local currency makes imported raw materials cheaper. In long-term contracts, which party will bear the exchange rate risk is an important part of the price negotiation.

7. Costs, Logistics and Delivery Method

The price of carob is reflected not only in the product itself, but also in the cost of the chain that delivers it to the buyer:

The difference between the ex-works price and the destination port price for the same product reflects freight and insurance costs. Therefore, when comparing quotes from different suppliers, it is necessary to ensure that the delivery mode is the same.

8. Market Structure and Informality

In the carob market, there is a multi-layered chain between fruit pickers, local traders, crushing plants, gamut producers and end users. This structure causes prices to change at different speeds in different links of the chain.

During periods of skyrocketing prices, unregistered trade and theft can also become a problem. In an operation carried out in the Valencia region of Spain in 2020, 632 tons of stolen carob were confiscated, and unauthorized warehouses were identified. In the news, it was stated that carob prices have increased approximately fivefold in recent years. In another news report in 2022, it was emphasized that the price increase increased national and international demand. In Portugal, producers demanded that the purchase and sale of carob be connected to an official registration system.

These developments show that price increases bring not only profit to the producer, but also the need for traceability and legal assurance. For buyers, documented and traceable supply is becoming as important a criterion as price.

In some countries, there are also institutional arrangements that affect price formation. According to FAO's Morocco document, carob fruit is given to cooperatives under preferential conditions in return for forest conservation activities in cooperatives-based forest management.