The Future of the Carob Industry
For many years, carob was seen as a product collected from wild trees and most of it was sold as feed or raw material. Today, the increasing interest in natural products, the search for drought-resistant species and new processing technologies make carob a sector that is being re-evaluated.
In this article, we evaluate the demand trends that shape the future of the carob industry, the climate and sustainability dimension, product innovation and Turkey's position in this table only through the data in the sources. We do not make price forecasts, we convey the trends found in the sources.
Today's Table: Where Do We Start?
Before talking about the future, it is necessary to see the current structure. According to the feasibility report prepared for the Western Mediterranean Development Agency, Turkey produced 25,106 tons of carob from an area of 16,980 decares in 2022, and Antalya ranked first with 13,095 tons; in the same year, Turkey's carob exports amounted to approximately 4.0 million dollars (Erbaş, 2024). In the investor guide of the General Directorate of Forestry, it is seen that production increased from 12,851 tons in 2015 to 16,256 tons in 2019, based on TURKSTAT data (General Directorate of Forestry, 2020).
The structure of production is also important. According to the value chain research, approximately 70 percent of carob in Turkey is obtained from wild trees, forest villagers do the collection work to a large extent, and the people who earn the least in the value chain are the collectors (Yaşam Dair Vakıf, 2018). In the same report, it is stated that small-scale processing is widespread, modern production capacity is limited, and there is a standardization problem in by-products.
On a world scale, according to the averages for the 1994-2021 period cited by Dahmani et al. (2023) from FAOSTAT data, the main producers are Portugal, Italy, Morocco, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus. This table shows that carob is a product largely unique to the Mediterranean basin and that Turkey is one of the important producers in this basin.
Demand Trends: Shift towards Natural Products
The most frequently emphasized trend regarding the future of carob is the increasing interest in natural products. In the news reporting the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's call for investment in carob cultivation in 2020, it is stated that the demand for natural products has increased, carob fruit and seeds have high value in terms of industry and trade, and the demand of carob processing factories has increased (Habertürk, 2020).
The prominent demand areas in the sources can be summarized as follows:
| Cocoa alternative | Carob powder is often used as a substitute for cocoa due to its similarity in appearance and taste; it is free from caffeine and theobromine (Dahmani et al., 2023). |
| Functional and special nutritional products | In the DEMICROCAROB project supported by the European Union, it is aimed to market micronized carob flour in functional, sports, diabetic, celiac and vegan foods and food supplements (CORDIS, 2017–2018). |
| Natural thickeners | The gum obtained from the kernel is used as a stabilizer and thickener in many foods (Morton, 1987). |
| Traditional products | Molasses, fruit pulp and carob bakery products maintain their importance in local and regional markets (Yaşam Dair Vakıf, 2018; Çakır, 2009). |
The value chain research, on the other hand, states that there is not a very high demand at the international level, but the decrease in the production of producers such as Spain creates an opportunity for Turkey (Yaşam Dair Vakıf, 2018). This measured evaluation reminds us that the future will not be shaped by itself, but by quality and added value.
Climate and Sustainability: A Drought-Tolerant Tree
Carob is a species frequently mentioned in discussions on sustainable agriculture due to its drought and heat resistance. Morton (1987) defines carob as an extremely drought-resistant species. In the value chain research, it is stated that the tree is resistant to fire and drought and is recommended to be used in afforestation of fire-risk areas (Yaşam Dair Vakıf, 2018). In the 2023 workshop in Antalya, it was recommended that carob be encouraged in areas with water scarcity because it requires less water and that it should be used as a fire buffer on forest edges because its leaves are less flammable (Politika Gazetesi, 2023).
However, resilience is not the same as productivity. Erbaş (2024) states that approximately 500 mm of annual rainfall is required, and supplementary irrigation is recommended in regions below 400 mm. In a trial conducted with mature trees in Portugal, a positive correlation was found between the amount of irrigation fertilization and fruit production (Correia and Martins-Loução, 1995). These findings indicate that even a drought-tolerant tree requires water management for commercial yield.
Another issue in terms of sustainability is pollinators. In the study conducted in Cyprus, it was shown that open-pollinated flowers yield 4–16 times more pods, depending on the region, than those pollinated only by wind, and that carob orchards contribute to the protection of wild bees (Varnava et al., 2023). Bee-friendly garden management will be part of the yield strategies of the future.
From Wild Picking to Horticulture
The most obvious structural change in the future of the sector is the transition from wild collection to planned horticultural agriculture. In the news report citing the investment call of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, it is recommended to respond to the increasing demand of processing factories by establishing a garden instead of wild collection (Habertürk, 2020). In the sample planning in the guide of the General Directorate of Forestry, it is stated that positive net income in the orchard is expected from the seventh year (General Directorate of Forestry, 2020).
In the value chain research, it is stated that 14,000 trees were planted in Adana, 5,100 in Mersin, 5,000 in Antalya and 700 in Muğla within the scope of the carob action plan (Yasam Dair Foundation, 2018). Among the recommendations of the Antalya workshop were increasing indoor (garden-type) plantings and nurseries, rehabilitating unproductive existing trees, creating gene pools and registering more varieties (Politika Gazetesi, 2023).
The success of horticulture depends on the right variety and sapling. In a long-term variety trial in Spain, significant differences were found between varieties in terms of pod and seed yield (Tous et al., 2008). Studies showing that the fruit characteristics of grafted trees in Turkey are higher than natural trees (Çetinay et al., 2014) and trials showing that tubular saplings are more successful in the field (Taşdemir and Keleş, 2023) provide a scientific basis for garden investments.
Innovation: From Raw Materials to Value-Added Products
The historical problem of carob was that most of its value was sold as raw material. A project supported by the European Union in 2001–2002 stated that the pulp, which constitutes the majority of the carob fruit, has limited market value outside of animal feed, and it was aimed to develop functional food and beverage ingredients from this pulp (CORDIS, 2001–2002). More recently, the DEMICROCAROB project under Horizon 2020 aimed to develop and market micronized carob powder by infrared drying and special grinding; the EU contribution in the second phase of the project was 806,377.25 euros (CORDIS, 2018–2020).
The same direction is recommended for Turkey:
- Export of processed, value-added products instead of raw fruits or seeds (Politika Newspaper, 2023).
- Transferring modern molasses production and grinding techniques to the local (Yaşam Dair Vakıf, 2018).
- Grant or loan support for enterprises with value-added facilities and export potential (Yaşam Dair Foundation, 2018).
- Clarity in product nomenclature: The study, which shows that products sold with names such as "carob extract" do not differ statistically from molasses, can contribute to the development of legislation and standards (Yavuz Küçük and Duraklı Velioğlu, 2022).
Quality, Standard and Traceability
One of the factors that will determine competition in the future is quality management. In the value chain research, it is stated that quality varies according to altitude and region, ungrafted trees and coastal areas produce lower quality, the use of high temperatures in traditional molasses production leads to the formation of HMF and loss of quality, and registration and certification processes have become mandatory in recent years due to foreign demand (Yaşam Dair Foundation, 2018).
In the Antalya workshop, it was emphasized that early harvest reduces quality and it was recommended to impose sanctions on early harvest with official harvest dates (Politika Newspaper, 2023). These recommendations indicate that the future of the carob sector will be determined not only by the amount of production but also by consistent quality from harvest to export.
| Area | Current situation (according to sources) | Future orientation |
|---|---|---|
| Raw material source | Mainly wild trees | Planned, grafted gardens |
| Processing | Small scale, limited modern capacity | Controlled process, standardization |
| Export | It is proposed to increase the share of processed products | Processed, value-added products |
| Quality | Variable according to the region and harvest time | Harvesting discipline, traceability, certification |
| Ecology | Drought and fire resistance are known | Afforestation, bee-friendly garden management |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is establishing a carob garden a future-proof investment?
The Ministry called for investment for carob orchards in 2020 and stated that positive net income is expected from the seventh year in the sample planning. However, like any investment, site selection, water status, sapling quality and market connection should be evaluated separately.
Is carob resistant to climate change?
Sources state that carob is drought and fire resistant. However, rainfall or support irrigation is important for commercial yields.
Where is the biggest opportunity in the carob industry?
The prominent opportunity in resources is the production and export of processed and value-added products instead of raw products.
Prepare for the Future of Carob with Carob Türkiye
Carob sector; The demand for natural products is being reshaped by drought resistance and new processing technologies. Permanent success in this transformation will be determined by quality raw materials, controlled processing and reliable supply chain.
At Carob Türkiye, we supply carob fruit, crumbs, flour/powder, seeds, and extracts. Our Products Our Products page, about value-added carob ingredients What is Carob Extract? You can read our article. For your wholesale and export requests You can contact.
Domestic resources
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